Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Knowing when to fold em...

Actually being able to fold a hand is a critically under appreciated skill. Changing your mind is a cardinal sin in America. Every business guy I've met, the failures and the outrageous successes, have all acted the same: flat out confident whether they knew what they were doing or not. I believe an exec who was introspective and open about his ignorance would be kicked to the curb. I consider this blind reliance on people who appear to know what they're doing a sad evolutionary weakness.

I respect guys like George Soros, who can change their mind at an instant and admit just how fragile their knowledge is. The opposite would be Geoffrey Chew, struggling to make his S-Matrix theory work for years and years in the face of ideas that didn't require extensive modifications to fit empirical data. My theory: do what the crowd won't do: in this case, admit when I'm wrong then change direction.

1 comment:

Eric said...

An interesting correlation is that these same business-people that rise to the top tend to have huge egos. They're 'invested' in their belief that they're doing the right thing no matter what.